Drying times – Issue #72
Asian hydropower output fell 17.9% during summer, leading to increased fossil fuel power generation
A hot summer exposes hydel power's Achilles' heel
Energy think-tank Ember has found something odd.
Like much of the world, Asia has been through a bruising summer. One casualty this year was hydropower output – it fell 17.9% during the seven months till the end of July. Fossil fuel-fired power rose 4.5%. In China, hydel power generation fell 15.9%. And in India, 6.2%. Both countries responded by running coal-based power plants harder. Similar numbers are reported from countries like Vietnam as well.
The reasons are interesting – and hold lessons about the risks and uses of hydel in the coming years. In some cases, low generation was due to “intense and prolonged heatwaves across the region”, which resulted in low reservoir levels and the need for alternative power sources to meet demand. “(Elsewhere), the hydropower output plunge resulted from efforts to conserve water and alter supply patterns,” found Ember. “For grid balancing... Chinese authorities pushed dam operators to maintain water levels as power consumption spiked due to heatwaves.”
Both reasons – low reservoirs and the imperative of grid balancing – spell greater reliance on solar and wind for baseload power.
Electro-rising in the East
Continuing with the new energy architecture much has been made of China’s hegemony over the critical minerals used for making rechargeable batteries. Now comes the news that the country has built up similar dominance over electrolysers as well.
The unit price of Chinese alkaline electrolysers now stands at $200-220 per kilowatt, reported Business Standard. This is 80% lower than equivalent models in Western nations. “China’s top four electrolyser producers — LONGi, PERIC, Sungrow, and Cockerill Jingli Hydrogen — are world leaders in electrolyser production capacity,” the paper wrote. “They possess a combined 7.5 gigawatt (GW) of electrolyser manufacturing capacity, and more than 20 other companies are adding to that capacity.”
This is solar redux. Even as India pushes hydrogen for decarbonisation, the country’s dependence on China is growing. “It’s likely that a significant portion of India’s 5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) green hydrogen production target, planned by 2030, will be met through the supply of Chinese electrolysers and other components,” reported Business Standard.
One wonders, too, how things will change once Reliance enters the picture. Its electrolyser gigafactory is expected to have a manufacturing capacity of 2.5 GW, easily on par with Chinese firms.
Withdrawal effects
The southwest monsoon is starting to withdraw from India. The picture it leaves behind is worrying. Rainfall this year has been torrential in the hills but meagre elsewhere. Unless one is talking about Nagpur, which flooded last week.
According to the Central Water Commission, the overall storage position in India’s 150 major reservoirs is less than the corresponding period of last year – and 29% below the storage capacity of these reservoirs. Just 2/3rds full, essentially. Get granular and the picture gets even more worrying. Bihar is in trouble. “Against the live capacity of 0.136 BCM, live storage was only 0.004 BCM, compared to last year’s 0.070 BCM and 0.087 BCM average of the last 10 years,” reported Down To Earth.
Turn to the peninsula and things are just as dire. Storage levels in 42 reservoirs in the south have just 25.569 BCM of water -- 48 per cent of the total live storage capacity of these reservoirs. “The storage during the corresponding period of last year was 92%, and average storage of the last 10 years during corresponding period was 72% of live storage capacity of these reservoirs,” reported the magazine. “The five southern states — Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Karnataka and Kerala — had the highest departure from normal storage of 48 per cent, 61 per cent, 53 per cent, 29 per cent and 42 per cent, respectively.”
This part of the country is expected to see rains into the middle of October. Our fingers are crossed.
Hills of disquiet
In Odisha, the state’s violent crackdown on people questioning mining continues. “The last two months have seen a slew of arbitrary arrests and disappearances in Odisha’s bauxite-rich Rayagada and Kalahandi districts,” reported Groundreport.
“As per reports, at least 22 activists from Dalit and Adivasi communities are currently incarcerated under the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA) and the Arms Act. Amongst them, nine adivasis have been booked under the draconian UAPA. Furthermore, more than 160 people are booked under various sections of the Indian Penal Code (IPC) for charges including kidnapping, attempt to murder, criminal intimidation, rioting, etc.”
Delhi's Race to Resilience
Delhi, earlier in the news for its mission to rejuvenate lakes, has joined Race to Resilience, a UN-backed campaign to boost climate resilience. One of its deliverables? Achieve a 25% green cover within the next five years. This is not as onerous as it sounds. According to the India State of Forest Report, Delhi's green cover currently stands at 23.06%. A bigger push to green the capital is coming from the Delhi High Court. It asked authorities to find land to create another forest area besides the ridge. These are important hearings. As WaPo showed last week, tree cover cools cities. Read their report on the inequality of heat stress. Set in Kolkata, it’s superbly reported and superbly presented.
In other news
NTPC has gotten a clean chit in the land subsidence in Joshimath matter.
Oil Palm continues to struggle to find – and retain – growers in the north-east. “While Assam Government has been selling new dreams of earning fortune from oil palm, a section of farmers cultivating it in the two districts under a pilot project, are finding it unsustainable,” reported NEZine.
Other news. Tesla wants to make and sell battery storage systems in India.
Investigative Reportage on India’s Forest Governance
Two sets of reports from last week are worth flagging. Reporter Rishika Pardikar is taking a – long overdue – look at the functioning of the Wildlife Institute of India. In this report, she raises questions about the institution’s benign biodiversity impact assessment for a rail track ploughing though a Tiger Reserve, two Wildlife Sanctuaries, and a National Park” in the western ghats.
The other report, by Tapasya Tofuss and Nitin Sethi, looks at how the BJP-led NDA government has made it easier for private firms to make money off India’s forests. Here are Part One, Part Two, and Part Three.
The climate question of the week
Across the world, climate decisions are being made in an opaque manner, writes Joydeep Gupta.
“In 2020, Bangladesh’s then-minister of power, energy and mineral resources raised hopes when he said that the country was “reviewing how we can move from coal-based power plants”. But leaders of think tanks and NGOs often consulted by policymakers in Bangladesh expressed ignorance about the decision before it was announced.
“It’s alright if the minister makes a good announcement without consulting anyone outside the government,” said the head of a Bangladesh-based think tank, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “But if we don’t know the details of the transition plan, we can’t hold the government to account. That’s the problem.”
Read: Opinion: As democracies weaken, who gets a say in South Asia’s climate future?
Climate long-reads of the week
Why Adani’s grip on banks is tighter than his hold on markets(Bloomberg)
Uthukuli butter: The case of missing buffaloes and a small town’s identity(101 Reporters)
The Praful Patel-Adani link you did not know about (Morning Context)
A brief guide to weeding a tiger reserve in India (IDR Online)
Read how “an idiot jumbo” changed a forest guard’s Sunday … and his perception (Gaon Connection)
The Story of WASH in Small Towns in India (Newsclick)
Books, books and books of the week
The good folks at Wildlife Trust of India have been asking environmentalists to list their favourite books on nature. So far, they have garnered suggestions from environmental historian Mahesh Rangarajan, reporter Neha Sinha, conservationist MK Ranjitsinh and birders Aasheesh Pittie and Tara Gandhi. The outcome is a list with some fabulous suggestions. Do check it out.