India's solar power push – Issue #84
The energy world saw new disruptions as Prime Minister Modi announced a major rooftop solar initiative following the Ram Temple consecration.
News of the week
The world has just lived through an eventful week.
To name two striking moments this week, the ICJ’s ruled against Israel and, back home, India has seen the consecration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya. One wonders about the importance of both moments.
Even in the energy world, the last seven days have been disruptive. A surprise decision by the Biden administration to freeze further construction of LNG export terminals made global headlines. As his approval ratings fall over Gaza, he is trying to shore up support amongst the young by presenting himself as a “climate president”.
It makes for an odd moment. The world, as a recent report by Global Energy Monitor shows, is still in the throes of a giant LNG export capacity buildup — much of that coming up in the USA. Just last month, COP28 had ended with the final statement alluding to the role of “transitional fuels” in the energy transition — even as activists protested outside about the US’s continuing buildup of LNG terminals. Now comes, for reasons of domestic politics, just that decision.
As Energy Intel writes, a clutch of projects will now see delays in approvals at least till November, when the US presidential polls will be held.
In India too, the past seven days have been disruptive. Shortly after the consecration of the Ram Temple, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a brand new rooftop solar push. His government, he said, aims to install rooftop solar power systems at 10 million houses across the country.
This is welcome news. Rooftop solar, a key driver of solar adoption in China, has been languishing in India. Now to see how the scheme works.
Talking of government schemes, another programme — the Jal Jeevan Mission's Har Ghar Jal initiative — said it’s on track to meet its targets. In one more year, it said, all rural households in the country could have a tap water connection. “The Jal Shakti ministry’s data shows the target is within striking distance,” reported Business Standard. “73.57 per cent of the households have already been covered by this flagship scheme of the Narendra Modi government.”
It isn’t quite smooth sailing, though. Three states — Rajasthan, Jharkhand, and West Bengal — are below even the halfway mark in achieving saturation of providing functional tap water connections to every household, said the paper. In other states, the programme is now struggling to reach primitive and vulnerable tribal groups.
In this phase, the programme seeks to supply 55 litres per capita per day of water to rural households. In the coming months and years, it will focus on improving water quality.
From HDI improvements — which are a key element for fighting climate change — to another arrow in the same arsenal -- renewable energy.
All through 2023, the prices of Chinese solar panels fell — declining a whopping 42% from 2022. This week, the fallouts were seen in India. JSW Energy put its solar manufacturing plans on hold. Even mighty Reliance, whose gigafactories are expected to go live in the second half of this year, might be in trouble. Citi Research warned oversupply from China might upset Reliance’s project returns. Other companies, like Grew Energy, part of the $1 billion Chiripal Group, are steaming ahead.
Elsewhere, India Inc’s decarbonisation plans are proceeding apace. JSW, tied up with China’s SAIC Motor, is set to invest Rs 40,000 crore ($4.81 billion) in electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing projects in Odisha, reported Business Standard. The group will invest ₹ 25,000 crore in an EV battery manufacturing plant and an EV components plant and Rs 15,000 crore for an EV components manufacturing complex, said the Business Daily.
This is interesting news. Two weeks ago, this newsletter had alluded to the race between Gujarat, Telangana and Tamil Nadu to lure EV manufacturers. Odisha too has entered the fray. Extrapolating from EVs to renewables, this emerging picture of states seeking to capitalise on decarbonisation becomes even richer. News came this week that Renew will invest Rs 26,400 crore for a green hydrogen project in Kerala, and that both CESC and the Chiripal Group are investing in Rajasthan and Gujarat.
Hardwired into such reports is a larger thought: the economic geography of India is changing.
It’s not like the old energy architecture is dying out, though. The cabinet has okayed a Rs 8,500 crore scheme for coal gasification projects. As a part of this, Coal India (CIL) has tied with GAIL to produce SNG. There is also a coal to Ammonium Nitrate plan. CIL has tied up with BHEL for that.
Adding to the general excitement, transport minister Nitin Gadkari also suggested that non-functional coal mines be used for coal gasification projects.
In other news, we learnt this week that cooking stove emission reductions are greatly overestimated. And, even as a furore continues in Chhattisgarh over the trees being axed in Hasdeo Arand — 98,000 at last count, it needs to share this spotlight with Telangana, where as many as 12 lakh trees were axed in 2020 alone.
The third phase of the FAME scheme is likely to give a boost to electric buses. Meanwhile, India is inviting fresh bids for its Advanced Chemical Cell PLI.
While EVs continue to ride high, Bajaj Auto is about to launch CNG-powered two-wheelers. “Bajaj is looking at launching a CNG-powered motorcycle by 2024-25 and then testing the market with a CNG scooter,” reported Business Standard. “If 5 to 7 per cent of mobikes are expected to go electric, there is no reason not to have a similar share for CNG. And in scooters, if that number is 25 per cent for electric, we are looking at the same levels for CNG,” Rakesh Sharma, executive director of Bajaj Auto, told the newspaper. The report in the newspaper is worth a read.
Yet other news. Macron came to India — he was the chief guest at this year’s Republic Day celebrations. On their agenda is greater collaboration on Small and Modular Reactors. On why this is a bad idea, have you read the CarbonCopy report?
Interestingly, India is tying up with EDF when the firm struggles to complete its projects in the UK. See this report on the UK’s Hinkley Point.
Finally, a year has passed since the Hindenburg report was released. Adani has recouped most of its market cap losses; it has unveiled fresh fund-raising plans; and Indian institutions continue to back it as ever. The latest instance comes from the Supreme Court which has now dismissed a review plea from the Customs Department regarding an overvaluation of capital good imports by the group.
Two reviews of COP28 (Both from The India Forum)
1. COP28: A Historic yet Flawed Outcome on Phasing Out Fossil Fuels.
2. COP28 Outcome: The Battle has Been Joined
Longreads of the week
“This requirement was done away with in the newly amended rules which allow final diversion approvals to be granted without the prior consent of the gram sabha. Now, the burden of ensuring that forest rights are settled and that the consent of the gram sabha is obtained is passed onto state governments after final diversion approval is granted by the union government.” Newslaundry on the government’s continuing emasculation of the Forest Rights Act.
The Japanese semiconductor deal spooking rivals and investors. (FT)
The risks of relying on superpowers to protect global trade. (FT)
“Though the finance minister made a commitment to spend Rs 1.97 lakh crore on the PLI Scheme for five years in 2021, the actual spending and the allocations on the scheme have been considerably smaller. Between 2021-22 and 2023-24, spending and allocations on the scheme were less than Rs12,000 crore, or 6% of the committed spending.” The India Forum reviews the PLI scheme.
A catch in AP’s aquaculture story. (The Hindu)
Algorithms of Exclusion. “In the past few years, at least half a dozen states have adopted profiling software to predict the eligibility of citizens for welfare schemes. These algorithms have wrongly declared the alive as dead, the poor as well-off, the disabled as able-bodied, robbing thousands of subsidised food, old-age pension, disability pension, widow pensions, and other welfare benefits for the poor. An investigation into how states are using artificial intelligence in an unintelligent way, at the cost of citizens,” by Reporters’ Collective.
The Big Battle Brewing Over LNG Exports (Canary Media)
What’s Next for Histories of Climate Change? (LA Review of Books)
Books of the week
Last week, this newsletter dropped in at the BookShop Inc, the new avatar of the Bookshop, Jor Bagh. It walked out with five books, including Adam Welz’s The End of Eden: Wild Nature in an age of Climate Breakdown and The Chukchi Bible. The first of these books is self-explanatory enough. The second is an older book, a history of the Chukchi people, who live on the shores of the Bering Sea, and their relationship with nature. It promises to be polymesmeric. Here is a review by Colin Thubron.