The COP 28 Special – Issue #81
UNFCCC COP28, set in Dubai amid strained trust between developed and developing nations, faces challenges mirroring persistent global disparities.
The Big Picture
Between 30 November and 12 December, COP28 will play itself out at Expo City, Dubai.
What should one expect, given that COP28 is happening at the end of a year with truly aberrant temperatures? In short, not too much.
Trust, never too high between developed and developing countries, is especially low this year. Not only do old sticking points in talks persist, Gaza is one more reminder that the liberal order is a veneer. The West continues to privilege white-skinned people over others. To be honest, this is not much of an epiphany. Even during COVID, western countries had stockpiled way more vaccines than they needed, even at the cost of leaving particularly vulnerable people in Africa, Asians, Latin Americans and elsewhere in the lurch.
There is a larger warning here. Western politicians and media can just as easily turn their back on the Global South as climate change effects intensify – as historian Timothy Snyder has been warning us. COP needs to find a fair, sustainable solution for everyone. However, as events running up to COP28 show again, we are not headed in that direction. See these reports:
This primer by Archana Chaudhary, to start with. Also, see this report by Matteo Civillini.
If these are not grim enough, oil-producing nations are trying to sabotage matters further. “Speaking to undercover reporters, Saudi energy officials disclosed ambitious plans to undo progress on phasing out oil by financing high carbon infrastructure across Africa and Asia”. (Centre for Climate Reporting)
Another instance? COP28: UAE planned to use climate talks to make oil deals (BBC)
Leaks reveal how McKinsey drives African climate agenda (Climate Home News)
Fossil Fuel Companies Made Bold Promises to Capture Carbon. Here’s What Actually Happened. (DeSmog)
British empire’s past emissions ‘double UK’s climate responsibility’ (Guardian)
A transition to where? The Gulf Arab states and the new ‘East-East’ axis of world oil (TNI)
Climate news of the week
In late November, parts of western India were battered by heavy rainfall and hailstorms.
This was a surprise – November and December are usually dry months in Gujarat and Maharashtra. A report in Gaon Connection traces these rains – yet again – to the western disturbances. “Winds from the upper reaches of Himalayas entered the western Indian region and interacted with the moist winds from the Arabian Sea to bring unseasonal rainfall in the region,” says its report.
Something is intriguing here. “According to the India: Annual Lightning Report 2020-2021, there has been a 34 per cent rise in lightning strikes in the country between 2019-2020 and 2020-21,” says Gaon Connection. “In Punjab, it is up to 331%; in Bihar, it is 168%, Haryana is up to 164%, Puducherry 117%; Himachal Pradesh 105%; and West Bengal 100%.”
According to the article, light strikes may rise by 12 per cent for every degree of rise in the global average air temperature.
News of the week
For most readers, this will be a busy week.
And so, we will keep this newsletter shorter. Here are the major events that made headlines in the week gone by.
Tesla is willing to set up a $2 billion factory in India if the government slashes import duty on its vehicles to 15% for the first two years. Currently, duty on cars priced above $40,000 stands at 100%. And 70% for all the others. “The Elon Musk-led electric vehicle (EV) maker is willing to invest up to $500 million if the government approves the reduced duty for 12,000 vehicles and up to $2 billion if the concession is for 30,000 vehicles,” reported Economic Times. It’s a puzzling approach. Do prices of Tesla models just double after Year Two?
Continuing with non-fossil fuel projects, one criticism of India’s hydel power push is that it favours the centre over the states where dams come up. One such instance comes today from J&K. “Even as Jammu and Kashmir produces a surplus of nearly 900 Mega Watts (MW) electricity from its 21 hydroelectric projects, it continues to be in the dark,” writes Kashmir Times. “As temperatures begin to plummet, Kashmir Valley is already facing 14-16 hours of power cuts.”
India is mulling fresh capacity expansion in thermal power – another 80 GW by 2032. This time around, the government wants private firms to ramp up investments. It’s an odd development. “The private investment share in the Indian power sector started dwindling after 2018 when it was more than, or at par with, government investments,” wrote Reuters. “Currently, it is 36% of the country's total installed capacity.” Adding to the general intrigue, this decision came when France, backed by the United States, planned to seek a halt to private financing for coal-based power plants. One wonders if this is pre-COP theatre.
In other news, the probe into FAME subsidy misappropriation has now widened to include bureaucrats. Elsewhere in the world, Sodium Ion batteries are catching up with their Lithium Ion counterparts.
The Supreme Court has concluded its hearings into the Adani/SEBI case – where petitioners wanted an independent probe into Hindenburg’s findings -- and reserved its judgement. While on Adani, Bengal dissolved the Letter of Intent it had given Adani to develop the Tajpur deep sea port. The announcement follows the CBI’s decision to start a preliminary enquiry against TMC MP Mahua Moitra. A close source to CM Mamata Banerjee, however, told The Telegraph that the state government did not want to take the risk of handing the project to Adani due to some clauses in the project.
A few days later, however, another TMC leader said talks were still underway between Adani and the state government.
Moving from energy to development, The Wire has published an extraordinary three-part series on India’s ill-considered adoption of fortified rice – cereals with factory-made micronutrients added to them. These are must-reads. Part One; Part Two; and Part Three.
The unbelievable video of the week
You will never believe how natural gas is illegally transported in Pakistan.
Climate long-reads of the week
New Renewable Purchase Obligations: Why they are both difficult and easy (Economic Times)
Tesla on two wheels? Ola Electric feels the strains of success (Reuters)
Too little, too late: the desperate search for cod babies (Guardian)
How India is boosting its strategic & economic ties with distant Latin America, Caribbean (This three-part series is worth a read. It talks about critical minerals). (The Print)
Meet the Italian fugitive advising Emirati start-up Blue Carbon (Climate Home News)
The Dark Seas of Deception: Unmasking EU fisheries in West Africa’s troubled waters (I Watch Africa)
China’s Deserts are Hiding An Energy Revolution (Bloomberg, Paywalled)
Book of the week
We are reading (and loving) James Lovelock’s memoir, A Homage To Gaia. The scientist, who came up with the Gaia Hypothesis, is one of the few people who can genuinely be called iconoclastic. In the book, he talks about the journey that led him to his insight that the earth is a self-regulating system – the very system we are in the throes of undoing right now.