The Design Problem of COP - Issue #31
The Big Picture
And here we go. COP27 is over.
After the curtain-raisers, ‘tis now the time of post-COP stock-taking.
Here is Indiaspend; CarbonBrief has an especially rich look at how COP27 evolved; PTI; Guardian; Financial Times; The Wire, and CarbonCopy.
Reading these, the general conclusion is glum. Despite a flurry of climate disasters in the months before countries met at Sharm El-Sheikh, COP27 has been underwhelming.
“Countries closed this year's U.N. climate summit on Sunday with a hard-fought deal to create a fund to help poor countries being battered by climate disasters, even as many lamented its lack of ambition in tackling the emissions causing them,
” reported Reuters.
To underline the lack of ambition, the newswire quoted Alok Sharma, the architect of the COP at Glasgow: “Emissions peaking before 2025 as the science tells us is necessary? Not in this text. Clear follow-through on the phase-down of coal? Not in this text. A clear commitment to phase out all fossil fuels? Not in this text." In tandem, India’s demand that the world phase down, if not phase out, all fossil fuels also went nowhere.
This lack of urgency can be seen with the Loss and Damage fund too. All the Sharm El-Sheikh agreement achieves is an in-principle nod to the idea. As Reuters reported, “the agreement (only sets out) a roadmap for resolving lingering questions including who would oversee the fund, how the money would be dispersed – and to whom.”
A large question lurks here. Despite the rising urgency of retarding climate change, the world’s primary instrument for fighting global warming shows little urgency. How does one understand this? The last two days, reading these assessments, this newsletter began wondering if this is a design problem. As Kate Mackenzie and Tim Sahay write in their latest newsletter, countries do not come to COP seeking to address a global crisis collaboratively. “It’s domestic economic and political interests that determine when and how countries cut emissions—not free riders and prisoners’ dilemmas.”
The outcome is, again, policy-making by confrontation. Developed Countries want to make as few concessions as possible; Developing countries want maximal aid plus extended access to cheaper forms of energy; the Oil Majors (countries and companies) have their imperatives. In such a design, each group concedes just enough to draw support from others. As Reuters wrote: “Many countries said they felt pressured to give up on tougher commitments for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius for the landmark deal on the loss and damage fund to go through.”
Similarly, with oil majors digging their heels in – and the Global North dependent on Gas -- calls to phase down all fossil fuels went nowhere.
What seems missing here is any voice – with the power to vote -- speaking exclusively on behalf of the planet.
There is also the assumption, mind you, that negotiators have the best interests of their people in mind. All countries aren’t democracies. Quite a few are kleptocracies. Take loss and damage, a lot will depend on how these funds are used within a country – and it seems a safe bet that developing countries will vigorously object to any scrutiny of how those loss and damage compensations will be used.
That is where we stand. The world has to work harder to rein in emissions. This has to be done without starving the global south of energy – or placing unfair burdens on them. Is COP taking us towards such an outcome? Speedily enough?
News of the Week
On other fronts, this has been a calm week.
Winter is starting to settle down over Europe. LNG supplies are sold out for years. Qatar, for one, has just inked an extraordinary 27-year supply contract with China. The Gas market is going to stay hot for a while. Iraq is in the grip of a savage drought that has lasted 3 years – and COPs come and go. Turning to India, the country will push on nuclear – a trebling of installed capacity in the next 10 years – and ethanol as it moves towards a low emissions pathway.
There was news, too, that Gautam Adani wanted to set up a family office overseas to manage his ballooning wealth. The group, however, denied this report.
The south Indian state of Tamil Nadu has set up three missions to fight global warming – Climate Change; Biodiversity Conservation and Greening; and Wetlands – and backed them up with financial support.
As Down To Earth reported, “The Tamil Nadu government has set up district climate change missions in all 38 districts. Each mission is to be headed by the concerned district collector as the mission director. The concerned district forest officers will function as climate officers.”
The jury is out. As The Hindu reported this week, local administration in Tamil Nadu all too easily overlooks and colludes in environmental violations. Setting up climate missions is welcome – India does need to pay closer attention to local adaptation and mitigation -- but the state has to get its local administration working again. A harder problem to tackle.
Indispensible Oligarch of the Week
This report is on all the many ways Mukesh Ambani touches your life. Welcome to the Ambaniverse
.
We need something similar for Gautambhai next.
Climate Long-reads
1. Sorting out India’s coal problem (Medium)
2. Scientists Are Uncovering Ominous Waters Under Antarctic Ice (Wired)
3. In India, Elephant Reserves Have Little To Do With Protecting Elephants(Wire)
4. The Wire also has a two-part series on India’s dam-building push in the northeast. Part One and Part Two, here.
5. COP27: Are India’s climate pledges a lot of hot air? (Al Jazeera). The world is puzzling over the gulf between our actions (Great Nicobar Port project; Coalblock auctions; etc) and our words.
6. This City-Building Video Game Takes on Climate Change (Bloomberg).
7. A Nation in the Crosshairs of Climate Change Is Ready to Get Rich on Oil (Bloomberg)
8. The new structures of the world might not be all that different from the existing ones. Heaviest Fighting in Years Breaks Out in Congo as Rivals Seek Control of Minerals (WSJ)
9. Inside Saudi Arabia’s strategy to keep the world hooked to oil (NYT)
10. A Fishing Village’s Last Gasp, As Climate Change, Industry & Pollution Sound A Death Knell (Article-14)
Book of the Week
The Politics of Climate Change
, by Anthony Giddens.
Here is a small review.