What Elections Are Telling Us About India
The third phase of voting will happen tomorrow — the 7th of May.
In this third phase, polling will be held in 93 Lok Sabha constituencies across 11 states and Union Territories.
These include: Assam; Bihar; Chhattisgarh; Daman, Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli; Goa; Gujarat; Karnataka; Madhya Pradesh; Maharashtra; Uttar Pradesh; and West Bengal.
As we wrote in the previous instalment of this newsletter, election reportage is a “five-yearly dipstick survey on how (India’s) people are faring (and) the issues they contend with.” And so, in the 2024 polls, what are the issues people are most gripped by?
2. In North Karnataka, drought tops poll agenda – not allegations against Prajwal Revanna
3. 26-0 hat-trick in Gujarat? BJP upbeat but Congress sees opening. Business Standard visited Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Vadodara, Rajkot, Surat, and industrial hubs Dholera and Sanand.
4. This report from Guna, Madhya Pradesh. "We get some water from a canal but our crops are mostly dependent on the rain. The groundwater is below 150 feet here and our power bills, as well as generator fuel costs, are high because of this.”
5. A ground report from Gwalior (Wire Hindi)
6. View from the Margins: In Gujarat, this salt miner’s voting decision hinges on his livelihood (Scroll)
7. ‘Modi promised us money in our accounts. What did we get? Rs 15 lakh in debt’. A chilli farmer in Uttar Pradesh, once loyal to BJP, is rethinking his vote because of local-level corruption and stagnating farm incomes (Scroll)
8. India’s Adivasi Communities Are Facing Brutal Repression (Jacobin)
9. Why One Of India’s Biggest Electoral Bond Donors Is A Touchy Topic In Bhiwandi (India Spend)
10. A neglected village boycotts the polls (Pari)
11. ‘Vote after marriage’: Around 70 lakh eligible women voters missing from UP’s electoral rolls (Newslaundry)
12. Labouring for bread, and roses too. On May 1, International Workers’ Day, PARI highlights four crucial reports on the state of labour in India. Presented in graphics, the reports shed light on the inequalities faced and the solidarities forged by the working people.
13. One voter, two votes: How Kotia villagers navigate blurred border dispute (Business Standard)
Climate News of the Week (Heat, heat and heat)
If you want further proof on how the climate is changing, consider Uttarakhand.
This year started with headlines about missing snowfall over the northern Himalayas. The belated snowfall that came was followed swiftly by a rapid onset of summer. So much so that, even as May is just starting, the state is already seeing forest fires. Even as the climate frays rapidly, state capacities continue to be non-existent. Not only do construction projects continue to weaken the mountains, news is also emerging that the state government took forest guards off fire patrols and put them to work on election duty.
Our new normal.
Talking of heat, here are some of the events from last week.
1. Last week also saw wildfires in the Sundarbans. As this newsletter gets written, those fires have finally been brought under control.
2. Lakshadweep is seeing widespread coral bleaching right now. You need to read that report along with this one:
3. The Indian Ocean headed for a near-permanent state of marine heatwave.
4. Also read this essay on heat reporting by Indian media (Himal SouthAsian)
5. In South Asia, heat stress kills without a heatwave (Dialogue.Earth)
6. The Indian economy is in danger of suffering a heatstroke (Founding Fuel)
7. Odisha is seeing forest fires as well (Reuters)
8. Tribal settlements in Kerala forests struggle amid rising temperatures (ET)
9. What is the impact of all this heat on consumer behaviour? Sales of ACs, coolers, beer, fridges — everything is up. (Mint)
This, of course, is just India. The rest of the world is seeing atypical weather as well. Brazil, for instance, saw flooding.
News of the Week
One reason India continues to tarry on decarbonisation is the centrality of fossil fuel revenues to the exchequer.
This point was made — again — last week. Coal India’s contribution to the government, reported Economic Times, stood at Rs 60,140 crore in FY 24, up from Rs 56,524 crore in FY23.
Another factoid last week, however, suggested that the tide might be turning. “The country's total installed energy capacity reached an impressive 442 GW, with renewable energy and hydro power making up 33% and 11%, respectively,” reported Economic Times. “Consequently, the share of coal and lignite in India's total installed capacity fell below 50% for the first time.” One counterpoint to these numbers, though, had come two weeks ago. Tamil Nadu, it was reported, had absorbed 40.5mu of solar power into its grid — an all time high. Forty million units is just 10% of the state’s demand. A reminder of how far we have to travel, we wrote last week.
Another counterpoint came last week itself. “The Centre plans to set up six thermal power generation hubs capable of producing 30 GW of power,” reported Livemint. This push is qualitatively new. “Land banks would be created near coal mines and then allocated to power generation companies, said two officials aware of the plans being conceived by the Union coal ministry,” reported the paper. “Public sector undertakings such as Coal India Ltd would form joint ventures with power generation companies and invest equity in these power projects.” The aim, the paper was told, is to cut the transportation cost of coal.
Another interesting development last week? The Indian government is thinking of tweaking its bankruptcy code to incorporate climate concerns. “The increasing likelihood of extreme weather events disrupting businesses has prompted the Union government to consider revisions to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code to incorporate environmental claims and liabilities,” wrote Policy Circle.
This needs to be understood. Till now, firms which defaulted on loans/repayments could be taken to insolvency courts. How does climate change enter this picture? Is this about devising an approach for firms vulnerable to climate risks? As the article says: “In 2019, California’s largest utility, Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E), declared bankruptcy after facing financial challenges from wildfires in Northern California, resulting in billions of dollars in potential liabilities. This bankruptcy, considered the first climate change-induced bankruptcy in the US, illustrates a significant underestimation by companies of the financial resources needed to manage physical climate risks.”
That is just the start. “The COP28 goals have factored in the financial hardships companies may face due to transition risks associated with moving towards a low-carbon economy, which could lead to further bankruptcies. Additionally, direct disruptions from extreme weather events like tsunamis and wildfires may lead to insolvency, emphasising the need for a comprehensive legal approach under the IBC… In India, integrating environmental goals with the IBC requires further discussion on adjudicating environmental claims, assessing associated costs, and deciding whether companies contributing to environmental damage should be rescued or liquidated through the insolvency process. For instance, in the case of a bankrupt coal company, the IBC must decide whether to allow restructuring with existing practices or to mandate technological changes.”
This is an interesting development — and needs to be understood better.
The Adani Group made headlines. Six of its group companies have — belatedly — received notices from SEBI for not reporting all related party transactions plus violations of unspecified provisions for listed companies. The group, however, is fully out of the shadow of Hindenburg and is expanding again. It is now thinking of building a port in Philippines; is trying to refinance a loan it had taken for a gas unit by raising $600 million; is acquiring PointLeap Projects; secured $400 million for fresh solar projects; raised Rs 11,250 cr for data centres; announced plans to raise another $1 billion to scale its solar manufacturing and airport businesses; and is mulling a $3 billion investment in electrolysers. Business as usual, once more.
Other news. Hyundai is recasting its e-mobility plans. It now wants to bring hybrid cars into the country before electric cars. Megha Engineering, in the news recently for its lavish electoral bond purchases, has bagged the tender to build the 2,000 MW Sharavathi pumped storage project. A suit filed by rival L&T, alleging favouritism in the tendering, has been dismissed by the Karnataka High Court. JSW wants to acquire a coal mine in Australia.
Climate Hero of the Week
Activist Alok Shukla of Chhattisgarh has won the prestigious Goldman Environmental Prize.
Read this interview with him.
Climate Podcast of the Week
Environmental social scientist Chandni Singh talks about Himal SouthAsian about the current heatwave sweeping South Asia, and why it’s unlike anything seen in the past.
Climate Long-reads
1. The Extracted Earth: Granta carries an interview with Thea Riofrances.
2. The sound ecologist capturing a disappearing world: ‘70% of habitats I recorded are gone’ (Guardian)
3. ‘We’re looking at losing 20% of Olympic nations’: how the climate crisis is changing sport (Guardian)
4. “The Tamil Nadu government has taken steps to denotify the boundaries of the Pulicat bird sanctuary, which includes 13 revenue villages. This will exclude the villages and thereby reduce the sanctuary’s eco-sensitive zone. A port expansion plan and an industrial park within the present default eco-sensitive zone threaten its future. Will these developments further affect the lake, the land, and the livelihood of locals, all of whom have been bearing the brunt of industrialisation in surrounding areas over the last few decades?” Pulicat Lake in peril, again (The Hindu)
5. “The link between labour productivity, human health and climate change gets scant attention, as the focus remains on economic and infrastructure resilience. The International Labour Organization’s latest report points to the need to ensure that labour becomes climate proofed.” Analysing labour on a warming planet (The Hindu)
6. Far from easing, India’s coal addiction worsens. (The Morning Context)
7. The Indian Economy is Doing Well, But Not Many Indians Are (India Forum)
8. Scorching heatwave ravages Southeast Asia’s food supplies, imperilling the poor (Dims Daily)
9. The ‘Mad Tree’ That Sustains Banni’s Vada Koli Community (IndiaSpend)
10. Behind Crotonville’s demise (Founding Fuel)
Books of the Week
An old book this week. Zapata and the Mexican Revolution, by John Womack.
This feels like a sister book to CLR James’ magnificent The Black Jacobins. Both books focus on popular uprisings — when the people (slaves in Haiti, peasants in Mexico) arose to dethrone their overlords. We have discussed The Black Jacobins earlier. Right now, as an increasingly impoverished India goes to polls, the Zapata book feels like relevant reading. A review here.
Talking of relevant reading, there is also War Without Mercy, by John Dower. The book looks at the role of race in the brutal pacific theatre of world war two. One looks at Israel’s attack on Gaza and the wider indifference of the world — and this book on race feels very relevant indeed.