What Elections Have Told Us About India – Issue #102

In April, as the 2024 elections began, our newsletter anticipated a surge in ground reports, and over the past two months, extensive coverage from across India has provided valuable insights

Jun 06, 2024

In April, as the 2024 elections began, this newsletter wrote:

“The 2024 elections have started. This is the time when the supply of ground reports abruptly ratchets up. It’s bound to, given hordes of reporters descend on the Indian hinterland, trying to gauge the issues on which voters’ behaviours might hinge. A five-yearly dipstick survey on how the country is doing, if you will.”

Over the past two months, India has indeed seen reportage from every nook and cranny in the country. And so, here is a smattering of what we learnt.

Himachal Pradesh: The Himachal voter who led a fight against big dams in Kinnaur; In Himachal, Youth Resentment Against Agniveer Scheme Dominates Poll Scene; BJP faces uphill battle in Himachal Pradesh as local issues eclipse national sentiments.

Uttarakhand: Climate Crisis Ravages Uttarakhand’s Nomadic Herders as Government Looks Away; Lack Of Health Facilities, Winter Tourism: Key Voter Issues In Uttarakhand's Garhwal; Uttarakhand: Navigating an uphill path.

Delhi: Chandni Chowk: India's smallest constituency yearns for big change; No Votes for the Yamuna: Delhi’s Citizens Appeal to Political Parties to Let the River Flow; Why displaced slum residents in Delhi want to vote NOTA.

Haryana: Farmers, inflation, army: Why the BJP is facing public anger in Haryana; Nuh is BJP’s Hindutva lab in Haryana – but Muslims are angry at Congress' poor campaign.

Bihar: Identity politics, polarisation, and development aspirations mark the electoral battle for Bihar’s Mithilanchal; Lok Sabha polls reopen old wounds from anti-Agnipath protests in Bihar; Gahmari Village Had a Thriving ‘Army Culture’, but Not After the Agneepath Scheme; ‘No educated person will vote for the BJP. What is the point of studying if we do not get jobs?’; Isolated, Neglected and Faced with a Cycle of Despair — Residents of These Villages in Bihar No Longer Interested in Elections; The Redundancy of Poll Promises and Significance of Caste in Bihar's Saran; Why Nitish Kumar faces an existential crisis in Bihar.

Rajasthan: Chasing water dreams in Rajasthan hamlets; A ground report from Barmer, Rajasthan, where “poverty is palpable, water is scarce and migrating to states like Gujarat and Maharashtra in search of work is the route to survival for many”; Bharat Adivasi Party: Battling BJP’s Hindutva, One Election at a Time.

Gujarat: In North Gujarat’s Granite-Rich Idar, Locals Fearful About Aravalli Mountains’ Future; Gujarat's Hunger Games: The state's migrant women and children face hunger and malnutrition despite a plethora of government schemes on paper; 26-0 hat-trick in Gujarat? BJP upbeat but Congress sees opening. Business Standard visited Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Vadodara, Rajkot, Surat, and industrial hubs Dholera and Sanand; View from the Margins: In Gujarat, this salt miner’s voting decision hinges on his livelihood.

Madhya Pradesh: This report from Guna, Madhya Pradesh. "We get some water from a canal but our crops are mostly dependent on the rain. The groundwater is below 150 feet here and our power bills, as well as generator fuel costs, are high because of this”; A ground report from Gwalior.

Jharkhand: Drought-hit Palamu; Does a mining company respect the dead? This is a report from Pakri Barwadih, NTPC’s huge captive coal block being mined by Thriveni Earthmovers. The firm continues to ply despite local complaints of huge environmental damage. Interestingly, Hazaribagh, where the block is located, is where, in 2018, BJP leader Jayant Sinha had garlanded the people who lynched Alimuddin Ansari. The block, essentially, is a microcosm of India. Extraction runs hand in hand with the politics of majoritarianism and distraction; New roads, schools in Birsa Munda birthplace, but lack of development still a poll issue in Jharkhand’s tribal seats; ‘Tribals hold their pain within’: Hindutva, rumblings of discontent in Birsa Munda’s land; The Jharkhand voter who will support a party that vows to protect forests; Left Campaign on Bread-and-Butter Concerns Lights up Electoral Contest in Jharkhand’s Kodarma.

Chhattisgarh: CarbonBrief travelled to Hasdeo Arand to talk elections, forests and coal; Farmer issues, Naxalism take centre stage in Chhattisgarh’s agro-belt; Local dynamics play a major part in Chhattisgarh election; On Chhattisgarh’s election pitch, politics over paddy procurement.

Odisha: In poll season, political parties rush to claim the transformation of Kalahandi; Naveen Patnaik's entry sows seeds of hope in migration-hit Kantabanji; Ostracised, SC families of Puri fear voting.

Bengal: The tea growing belt in eastern India — Siliguri, Darjeeling and Jalpaiguri — is not getting enough rain; The Polls in Darjeeling: Amidst Tourism Boom, Environmental Concerns Remain Unaddressed; Tea industry trouble in Darjeeling, Kurseong and Siliguri; Mosque row hits income, not Modi fan base: PM on lips, bleak times notwithstanding; Hindutva-lite: Behind Didi’s new formula to boost Trinamool in Bengal; As Howrah Goes to Polls, Its Residents Fight for Land and ‘Life'; Lok Sabha elections: In Singur, Lakshmir Bhandar in the spotlight; Cash transfers vs Sandeshkhali: How Bengali women are choosing between Trinamool and BJP.

Assam: How Guwahati Air Became World’s 2nd Most Polluted; Citizenship, connectivity, unemployment key issues in Assam's Barak Valley; Delimitation, indigenous identity, and minority votes may influence Assam’s last phase of voting; In Dhubri, poor transport is the issue.

Sikkim: Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Corruption and defections are key poll issues in Sikkim; As India’s smallest state votes, a broken hydro plant takes centerstage; Tripura and Sikkim: Alliance shifts, controversial candidates, and a three-cornered battle.

Manipur: This hardly needs to be spelt out. Ethnic violence, illegal immigration among key issues in Manipur LS polls; Lok Sabha elections 2024: Simmering Manipur may press NOTA.

30.1. Uttar Pradesh (west): Sharp contrasts in two Industrial hubs: Noida flourishes, Ghaziabad falters; ‘Modi promised us money in our accounts. What did we get? Rs 15 lakh in debt’. A chilli farmer in Uttar Pradesh, once loyal to BJP, is rethinking his vote because of local-level corruption and stagnating farm incomes; This ground report from drought-gripped Bundelkhand (TOI). Also see this, In Bundelkhand, Modi labharthis ask for more: “Bijli hai, paani hai… par mukhya cheez hai rozgar”. And this one from Business Standard, which alludes to environmental crises in the region. “According to Ramsewak, the acreage under Desawari in Mahoba had grown to 220 hectares with 1,100 families associated with its cultivation. It is now down to barely 10 hectares with 22 families involved in the trade. “Weather fluctuations, of cold and heat, have impacted its cultivation. I believe it has changed the nature of the soil structure, and this is linked to the widespread environmental degradation of the region, too,” he says; Gorakhpur Emerges as an Important Barometer to Gauge ‘Change’ in UP’s Mood from 2022.

30.2. Uttar Pradesh (central): Work is worship: Bijli, sadak, paani are once again the key poll issues in UP; ‘Vote after marriage’: Around 70 lakh eligible women voters missing from UP’s electoral rolls; Joblessness and more in Amethi, Uttar Pradesh, as well; ‘No one comes as we’re Dalits’: Resentment and perpetual struggle in UP’s poorest seat, a report from Bahraich; As Ayodhya Votes Today, a Temple Subsumes All Poll Issues; Kaiserganj: Denied a Ticket, Brij Bhushan’s Influence Looms Amid Undercurrents of Discontent; Constitution, cows, rations: Why Dalits in UP want to vote out the BJP; What Three 'Low Margin' Constituencies Say About Uttar Pradesh Politics; Modi pulled bahujan voters to the BJP. Many are now drifting away.

30.3. Uttar Pradesh (east): Purvanchal’s migrant workers are desperate & poor. But they are determining India’s politics; this ground report from Firozabad; Inflation and joblessness in eastern UP; UP: In Purvanchal, BJP's Alliance with Caste-Based Parties on a Shaky Ground.

Needless to say, this is an incomplete list. And yet, that is how it went. In phase after phase, inflation, joblessness and precarity held centre stage.

Climate change was around, too. In the final phase, it hit India with a vengeance. Nagpur hit 56 degrees Celsius. Mungeshpur in North Delhi came close to Death Valley temperatures. This was subsequently blamed on a faulty sensor — which, nonetheless, means it saw temperatures around 48 degrees. Other parts of Delhi touched 49.9 degrees. In Uttar Pradesh, 7 homeguards put on poll duty died of heat. So did dozens of other Indians, some while queuing to vote. Thereafter, a day before counting, the Election Commission listed amongst its learnings, its brilliant epiphany that polls should not be held in peak summer. Water crises worsened across north India. Animals died as well. A video, with birds fallen off trees, did the rounds.

The question is now this. The BJP is the single-largest party — but lacks a majority. At this time, it looks like it will form the government with support from allies like Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu, both of whom will exact their pounds of flesh. At this time, it seems probable that the BJP will be so busy keeping its government in power that it will have little mindspace for the real challenges facing the country.

What those issues are, we already know.

What Elections Have Told Us About India – Issue #102

In April, as the 2024 elections began, our newsletter anticipated a surge in ground reports, and over the past two months, extensive coverage from across India has provided valuable insights

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